2016 TRIPLE CROWN REPORT: Kentucky Derby Preview

There is a potential big payday looming if undefeated Nyquist fails to become the third consecutive odds-on favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, so before you watch and wager we’ve prepared some key historical data to help you handicap the big race and hopefully pick the winning horse.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

kentucky derby

KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW

Site: Churchill Downs/Louisville, Kentucky

2015 champion: American Pharoah

T.V.:  Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

Post Time:  6:34 p.m. ET

 

Here is a breakdown of every horse in the Kentucky Derby including morning line odds and post position history…

 

1: Trojan Nation (50-1)…Since 1964 only Ferdinand (1986) has won the Derby from the pole.

2: Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)…The last Derby winner from the second position was Affirmed in ’78.

3: Creator (10-1)…The last Derby winner from the third position was Real Quiet in ‘98.

4: Mo Tom (20-1)…Since Seattle Slew won the 1977 Derby, only Super Saver (2010) has won the Derby from the fourth position.

5: Gun Runner (10-1)…Four Derby winners have started fifth since 1997 including California Chrome in ’14.

6: My Man Sam (20-1)…Since 1957 only Sea Hero (1993) has won the Derby from the sixth position.

7: Oscar Nominated (50-1)…Since Pleasant Colony won the 1981 Derby, only Street Sense (2007) has won the Derby from the seventh position.

8: Lani (30-1)…Four Derby winners have started eighth since 1990 including 50-1 shot Mine That Bird in ‘09.

9: Destin (15-1)…The last Derby winner from the ninth position was Riva Ridge in ’72.

10: Whitmore (20-1)…Since Secretariat won the Derby in 1973 seven Derby winners have started 10th including Giacomo in ‘05.

11: Exaggerator (8-1)…The last Derby winner from the 11th position was Brokers Tip in ‘33.

12: Tom’s Ready (30-1)…The last Derby winner from the 12th position was Canonero II in ‘71.

13: Nyquist (3-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 13th since 1968 (Smarty Jones/2004).

14: Mohaymen (10-1)…The last Derby winner from the 14th position was Carry Back in ‘61.

15: Outwork (15-1)…Four Derby winners have started 15th since 1996 including two of the last three.

16: Shagaf (20-1)…Four Derby winners have started 16th since 1995 including Animal Kingdom in ‘11.

17: Mor Spirit (12-1)…No horse has ever won the Derby from the 17th position.

18: Majesto (30-1)…The last Derby winner from the 18th position was Gato Del Sol in ‘82.

19: Brody’s Cause (12-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 19th (I’ll Have Another/2012).

20: Danzing Candy (20-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 20th (Big Brown/2008).

 

Kentucky Derby trends…

-Since 1995 (21 races), 10 of 21 Derby winners (4 of L5) have come from the auxiliary gate (15-20) including four each from post 15 & 16.

-8 of the last 12 Derby winners had post-time odds of 8-1 or lower including five odds-on favorites.

 

Kentucky Derby winning prep race connection trends…

-Arkansas Derby: 3 winners have won both races including American Pharoah last year.

-Blue Grass Stakes: 10 winners have won both races including Strike the Gold in ‘91.

-Florida Derby: 13 winners have won both races including Orb in ‘13.

-Louisiana Derby: 2 winners have won both races including Grindstone in ‘96.

-Santa Anita Derby: 10 winners have won both races including California Chrome in ‘14.

-Wood Memorial: 11 winners have won both races including Fusaichi Pegasus in ‘00.

 

Kentucky Derby breeding numbers…

-107 Kentucky-bred’s have won the Derby including Orb in ’13.

-Florida has bred six winners, but none since Silver Charm in ’97.

-California has bred four winners including California Chrome in ‘14.

-Virginia has bred four winners, but none since Sea Hero in ‘93.

-Tennessee has bred three winners, but none since Typhoon II in 1897.

-Canada has bred two winners, but none since Sunny’s Halo in ‘83.

-England has bred two winners, but none since Tomy Lee in ‘59.

-New Jersey has bred two winners, but none since Cavalcade in ‘34.

-Pennsylvania has bred two winners, but none since Smarty Jones in ‘04.

-Texas has bred two winners, but none since MiddleGround in ‘50.

-Tennessee has bred three winners, but none since Typhoon II in 1897.

-The seven states which have bred just one Derby winner each were from Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New York and Ohio.

 

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