2017 Kentucky Derby Preview & Picks

Without a clear-cut favorite entering today’s 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby the chances are better than they’ve been in years for a quality payout at the window. Now the hard part is figuring out which of the half dozen or so horses ranging from 15-1 to 30-1 odds will have the best chance to make that happen.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

You can tune in for a complete in-depth look at the Kentucky Derby with professional thoroughbred handicapper Jon Hardoon from the on-demand edition of The Prime Sports Horse Report that aired Friday night with analysis, stats and picks.

 

KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW

Site: Churchill Downs/Louisville, Kentucky

2016 champion: Nyquist

T.V.:  Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Post Time:  6:34 p.m. ET

 

Here is a breakdown of every horse in the Kentucky Derby including morning line odds and post position history…

1: Lookin At Lee (20-1)…Since 1964 only Ferdinand (1986) has won the Derby from the pole.

2: Thunder Snow (20-1)…The last Derby winner from the second position was Affirmed in 1978.

3: Fast and Accurate (50-1)…The last Derby winner from the third position was Real Quiet in 1998.

4: Untrapped (30-1)…Since Seattle Slew won the 1977 Derby, only Super Saver (2010) has won the Derby from the fourth position.

5: Always Dreaming (5-1)…Four Derby winners have started fifth since 1997 including California Chrome in 2014.

6: State of Honor (30-1)…Since 1957 only Sea Hero (1993) has won the Derby from the sixth position.

7: Girvin (15-1)…Since Pleasant Colony won the ‘81 Derby, only Street Sense (2007) has won the Derby from the seventh position.

8: Hence (15-1)…Four Derby winners have started eighth since 1990 including 50-1 shot Mine That Bird in 2009.

9: Irap (20-1)…The last Derby winner from the ninth position was Riva Ridge in 1972.

10: Gunnevera (15-1)…Since Secretariat won the Derby in 1973 seven Derby winners have started 10th including Giacomo in 2005.

11: Battle of Midway (30-1)…The last Derby winner from the 11th position was Brokers Tip in 1933.

12: Sonneteer (50-1)…The last Derby winner from the 12th position was Canonero II in 1971.

13: J Boys Echo (20-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 13th since 1968 (Smarty Jones/2004).

14: Classic Empire (4-1)…The last Derby winner from the 14th position was Carry Back in 1961.

15: McCraken (5-1)…Four Derby winners have started 15th since 1996 including two of the last three.

16: Tapwrit (20-1)…Four Derby winners have started 16th since 1995 including Animal Kingdom in 2011.

17: Irish War Cry (6-1)…No horse has ever won the Derby from the 17th position.

18: Gormley (15-1)…The last Derby winner from the 18th position was Gato Del Sol in 1982.

19: Practical Joke (20-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 19th (I’ll Have Another/2012).

20: Patch (30-1)…Only one Derby winner has started 20th (Big Brown/2008).

 

Kentucky Derby winning prep race connection trends…

Arkansas Derby: Three winners have won both races including American Pharoah in 2015.

Blue Grass Stakes: Ten winners have won both races including Strike the Gold in 1991.

Florida Derby: 14 winners have won both races including Nyquist last year.

Louisiana Derby: Two winners have won both races including Grindstone in 1996.

Santa Anita Derby: Ten winners have won both races including California Chrome in 2014.

Wood Memorial: 11 winners have won both races including Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

 

Kentucky Derby trends…

Since 1996 (22 races), 10 of 22 Derby winners (4 of L6) have come from the auxiliary gate (15-20) including four each from post 15 & 16.

Nine of the last 13 Derby winners had post-time odds of 8-1 or lower including six odds-on favorites.

Four of the last five winners were trained in California.

 

Kentucky Derby jockey numbers (must have a ride in this race)…

Kent Desormeaux has three Derby wins including most recently in 2008 with Big Brown.

Victor Espinoza has won two of last three Derby’s including three overall.

Mario Gutierrez has two wins including last year with Nyquist.

One-time winners include: Joel Rosario, Mike Smith and John Velazquez.

 

Kentucky Derby training numbers (must have a horse in this race)…

Doug O’Neill has two wins including last year with Nyquist.

One-time winners include: H. Graham Motion, Todd Pletcher and

John Shirreffs.

 

Kentucky Derby breeding numbers…

108 Kentucky-bred horses have won the Derby including Nyquist last year.

Florida has bred six winners, but none since Silver Charm in 1997.

California has bred four winners including California Chrome in 2014.

Virginia has bred four winners, but none since Sea Hero in 1993.

Tennessee has bred three winners, but none since Typhoon II in 1897.

Canada has bred two winners, but none since Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

England has bred two winners, but none since Tomy Lee in 1959.

New Jersey has bred two winners, but none since Cavalcade in 1934.

Pennsylvania has bred two winners, but none since Smarty Jones in 2004.

Texas has bred two winners, but none since Middle Ground in 1950.

Tennessee has bred three winners, but none since Typhoon II in 1897.

The seven states which have bred just one Derby winner each were from…Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New York and Ohio.

 

Kentucky Derby Picks (Jon Hardoon)

Winner…10 Gunnevera (15-1)

In the money…16 Tapwrit (20-1) & 19 Practical Joke (20-1)

 

Kentucky Derby Picks (Greg DePalma)

Winner…18 Gormley (15-1)

In the money…11 Battle of Midway (30-1) & Practical Joke (20-1)

 

 

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