PSN NASCAR Handicapping Report & Picks: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

With three races remaining before the playoffs start at Chicago, several drivers are in need of a win tonight at Bristol Motor Speedway if they want to get in.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

TRACK DATA

Track: Bristol Motor Speedway

Sponsor: Bass Pro Shops

Shape: Short track oval

Similar tracks: Martinsville & Richmond

Defending champion: Kevin Harvick 

T.V.:  Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

 

TRACK TRENDS

– 7 of last 17 race winners started outside the top-8 (front four rows).

– The farthest back a race winner has started is 38th (Elliott Sadler/2001).

 

TOP CONTENDERS

Kyle Busch

Season: Three straight top-10s including a win at Pocono.

Track: 8 top-5s and a five wins in 24 career races including just 1 top-5 since his last win here in 2011; wrecked in four of last five here while leading a combined 456-laps; 35th in April.

Odds: 4-1

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Season: 5 top-5s, one runner-up and two wins in his last six races.

Track: 2 top-5s in 23 career races; 8th in April.

Odds: 5-1

 

Kyle Larson

Season: Won last week at Michigan.

Track: 3 top-10s in seven career races; 6th in April from the pole while leading 202-laps.

Odds: 6-1

 

Matt Kenseth

Season: 4 top-10s, L5 including 3 top-5s and a runner-up.

Track: 14 top-5s and four wins in 35 career races; 4th in April.

Odds: 7-1

 

Kevin Harvick (Defending Champion)

Season: 12 top-10s, L17 including 8 top-5s, two runner-ups and a win.

Track: 12 top-5s and two wins in 33 career races including a win in this race last year; 3rd in April.

Odds: 10-1

 

Erik Jones

Season: 5 top-10s, L7 including third last week.

Track: 17th in April in first Cup Series race here; 4 top-10s in five career Xfinity Series races including 3 top-5s and two wins.

Odds: 10-1

 

Brad Keselowski

Season: Just 3 top-10s, L7; also won at Martinsville and was runner-up at Richmond.

Track: 4 top-5s and two wins in 15 career races including just 1 top-10, L5; 34th in April.

Odds: 10-1

 

Joey Logano

Season: Just 2 top-5s, L14; won race at Richmond earlier this season.

Track: 4 top-5s and two wins in 17 career races including 7 top-10s, L10 with 4 top-5s, two wins and a combined 518-laps led; 5th in April.

Odds: 10-1

 

Denny Hamlin

Season: 8 top-10s, L12 including 7 top-5s and a win.

Track: 11 top-10s, 6 top-5s and a win in 23 career races; 10th in April.

Odds: 12-1

 

Jimmie Johnson

Season: Just 1 top-5 (win at Dover) over his last 15 races; has finished 19th or worse in five of his last six races.

Track: 11 top-5s and two wins in 31career races including 5 top-10s, one runner-up and a win in his L6; 10th in June.

Odds: 14-1

 

Chase Elliott

Season: 2 top-10s, L3.

Track: 2 top-10s and 1 top-5 in three career races including 7th in April.

Odds: 16-1

 

TOP LONG-SHOTS

Clint Bowyer

Season: 5 top-10s, L8 including 3 top-5s and two runner-ups.

Track: 7 top-5s in 23 career races including 3 top-10s, 2 top-5s and a runner-up (April) in his last four.

Odds: 20-1

 

Ryan Blaney

Season: No top-5s in his last nine races.

Track: No top-10s in four career races including 33rd in April.

Odds: 22-1

 

Kurt Busch

Season: Just 1 top-5 since winning the Daytona 500.

Track: 9 top-5s and five wins in 33 career races; 25th in April.

Odds: 40-1

 

Jamie McMurray

Season: Just 1 top-5, L13.

Track: 11 top-10s and 3 top-5s in 29 career races; 12th in April.

Odds: 40-1

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season: No top-10s, L7.

Track: 16 top-10s, 8 top-5s and a win in 34 career races including a runner-up last April; 38th in April.

Odds: 50-1

 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Season: No top-10s, L6.

Track: 5 top-10s and 3 top-5s in nine career races including a runner-up in this race last year; 9th in April.

Odds: 50-1

 

Daniel Suarez

Season: 4 top-10s, L5.

Track: 18th in April in first Cup Series race here; 4 top-5s in six career Xfinity Series races including two runner-ups with one last night.

Odds: 66-1

 

Ryan Newman

Season: 3 top-5s, L7.

Track: 16 top-10s and 2 top-5s in 31 career races; 14th in April.

Odds: 75-1

 

Kasey Kahne

Season: Just 1 top-10, L13 (win at Brickyard).

Track: 5 top-5s and a win in 27 career races; 20th in April.

Odds: 75-1

 

Trevor Bayne

Season: 5th last week at Michigan.

Track: 1 top-5 in 6 career races including 12th or better in his last three; 11th in April.

Odds: 250-1

 

RACE PICKS: WEEK 24

CJ RADUNE

RACE RECORD: 13 for 23

RACE TOTAL: +80

 

WEEK 24 RACE PICKS

Kyle B (4-1)…40

M Truex Jr. (5-1)…30

B Keselowski (10-1)…15

D Hamlin (12-1)…15

For a complete record of CJs weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

GREG DEPALMA

RACE RECORD: 10 for 23

RACE TOTAL: -235

 

WEEK 24 RACE PICKS

C Bowyer (20-1)…30

E Jones (10-1)…20

J McMurray (40-1)…20

C Elliott (16-1)…15

D Suarez (66-1)…5

R Newman (75-1)…5

T Bayne (250-1)…5

For a complete record of Greg’s weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

Points Formula (Monster Energy Cup Series)

Each analyst receives a weekly allowance of 200 points to spend on races (100 x 36) and futures (100 x 32).

100 futures points will be invested before practice begins each week, while 100 race points will be invested on race day.

The weekly totals take into account both the 100 futures investment and the 100 in race picks.

After race 32 in Kansas, each analyst will no longer be obligated to invest the 100 in futures points if he chooses, although he must continue to invest the 100 in race points through Homestead.

 

Championship Odds (8/17)

Weekly Futures Picks Report

3-1…Kyle B and M Truex Jr.

5-1…K Larson

7-1…K Harvick and J Johnson

10-1…D Hamlin

12-1…B Keselowski

20-1…C Elliott

25-1…M Kenseth

50-1…R Blaney

80-1…C Bowyer, Kurt Busch, J Logano and J McMurray

100-1…A Dillon, K Kahne, R Newman and R Stenhouse Jr.

200-1…E Jones and D Suarez

300-1…Dale Jr.

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