PSN NASCAR Handicapping Report & Picks: Bojangles’ Southern 500

Cup Series points leader Martin Truex Jr. will try and defend his win at Darlington Raceway tonight with just two races to go before the playoff races begin.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

TRACK DATA

Track: Darlington Raceway

Sponsor: Bojangles’

Shape: Intermediate/Asphalt (1.3 mile)

Similar tracks: Homestead

Defending champion: Martin Truex Jr.

T.V.:  Sunday, 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

 

TRACK TRENDS

– 11 of last 15 race winners started outside the top-10 (front five rows).

– The farthest back a race winner has started is 37th (Ward Burton/2001; Bobby LaBonte/2000).

 

TOP CONTENDERS

Kyle Busch

Season: Four straight top-10s including two wins.

Track: 2 top-5s and a win in 12 career races; has led just a combined 4-laps the last three races; 11th LY.

Odds: 3-1

 

Martin Truex Jr. (Defending Champion)

Season: 5 top-5s, one runner-up and two wins in his last seven races.

Track: 2 top-5s and a win in 11 career races; 1st LY.

Odds: 4-1

 

Kyle Larson

Season: Four top-10s, two runner-ups and a win in his last seven.

Track: 3 top-10s and 1 top-5 in three career races; 3rd LY.

Odds: 5-1

 

Kevin Harvick

Season: 6 top-10s, L9 including 3 top-5s, a runner-up and a win.

Track: 6 top-5s and a win in 20 career races including four straight top-5s with a runner-up, a win and two poles while leading a combined 496-laps; 2nd LY.

Odds: 6-1

 

Denny Hamlin

Season: 9 top-10s, L13 including 8 top-5s and a win.

Track: 6 top-5s and a win in 11 career races; 4th LY.

Odds: 7-1

 

Brad Keselowski

Season: Just 3 top-10s, L8.

Track: 2 top-5s in 8 career races; 9th LY.

Odds: 10-1

 

Joey Logano

Season: Just 2 top-5s, L15.

Track: 2 top-5s in 8 career races with both in his last two races; 5th LY.

Odds: 12-1

 

Matt Kenseth

Season: 5 top-10s, L6 including 4 top-5s and a runner-up.

Track: 3 top-5s and a win in 23 career races; 6th LY.

Odds: 15-1

 

Erik Jones

Season: 6 top-10s, L7 including third at Michigan and runner-up at Bristol.

Track: First career Cup Series race.

Odds: 16-1

 

TOP LONG-SHOTS

Jimmie Johnson

Season: Just 1 top-5 (win at Dover) over his last 16 races; has finished 19th or worse in five of his last seven races.

Track: 9 top-5s and three wins in 18 career races; has led just a combined 8-laps in his last four races; 33rd LY.

Odds: 20-1

 

Ryan Blaney

Season: No top-5s in his last ten races.

Track: No top-10s in two career races including 13th LY.

Odds: 25-1

 

Chase Elliott

Season: Just 2 top-10s, L6.

Track: 1 top-10 in two career races; also has one win in two career Xfinity races; 10th LY.

Odds: 25-1

 

Kurt Busch

Season: 2 top-10s and 1 top-5, L3.

Track: 2 top-5s in 20 career races; 34th LY.

Odds: 28-1

 

Jamie McMurray

Season: Just 1 top-5, L14.

Track: 3 top-5s in 16 career races; 15th LY.

Odds: 33-1

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season: No top-10s, L8.

Track: 4 top-5s in 21 career races including three straight top-10s with a runner-up; DNR LY.

Odds: 75-1

 

Ryan Newman

Season: 4 top-10s and 3 top-5s, L8.

Track: 7 top-5s in 18 career races; 8th LY.

Odds: 75-1

 

Kasey Kahne

Season: Just 1 top-10, L14 (win at Brickyard).

Track: 3 top-5s in 14 career races including four poles; 7th LY.

Odds: 100-1

 

RACE PICKS: WEEK 25

 

CJ RADUNE

RACE RECORD: 14 for 24

RACE TOTAL: +180

 

WEEK 25 RACE PICKS

M Truex Jr. (4-1)…40

K Harvick (6-1)…20

D Hamlin (7-1)…20

B Keselowski (10-1)…10

J Logano (12-1)…5

M Kenseth (15-1)…5

For a complete record of CJs weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

GREG DEPALMA

RACE RECORD: 10 for 24

RACE TOTAL: -335

 

WEEK 25 RACE PICKS

K Harvick (6-1)…50

C Elliott (25-1)…50

For a complete record of Greg’s weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

Points Formula (Monster Energy Cup Series)

Each analyst receives a weekly allowance of 200 points to spend on races (100 x 36) and futures (100 x 32).

100 futures points will be invested before practice begins each week, while 100 race points will be invested on race day.

The weekly totals take into account both the 100 futures investment and the 100 in race picks.

After race 32 in Kansas, each analyst will no longer be obligated to invest the 100 in futures points if he chooses, although he must continue to invest the 100 in race points through Homestead.

 

Championship Odds (9/3)

Weekly Futures Picks Report

2-1…M Truex Jr.

3-1…Kyle B

5-1…K Larson

7-1…D Hamlin, K Harvick and J Johnson

12-1…B Keselowski

25-1…C Elliott and M Kenseth

60-1…R Blaney

80-1…J McMurray

100-1…Kurt Busch, E Jones, J Logano, R Newman and R Stenhouse Jr.

200-1…C Bowyer, A Dillon and K Kahne

300-1…D Suarez

500-1…Dale Jr.

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