PSN NASCAR Handicapping Report & Picks: Federated Auto Parts 400

The final race before the playoffs gets underway tonight at Richmond Raceway and three spots remain for the right to compete for the championship.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

 

 

TRACK DATA

Track: Richmond Raceway

Sponsor: Federated Auto Parts

Shape: Short/Asphalt (0.75 miles)

Similar tracks: Bristol & Martinsville

Defending champion: Denny Hamlin

T.V.:  Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

 

TRACK TRENDS

– The last five race winners started inside the top-5.

– The farthest back a race winner has started is 31st (Clint Bowyer/2008).

 

TOP CONTENDERS

Kyle Busch

Season: Five straight top-10s including a runner-up and two wins.

Track: 15 top-5s, six runner-ups and four wins in 24 career races while leading a total of 1,021-laps; has led just a combined 160-laps in his last 11 races; 16th in April.

Odds: 4-1

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Season: 5 top-5s, one runner-up and two wins in his last eight races.

Track: 2 top-5s in 23 career races; led 193 of his all-time 234 career laps here in April and finished 10th.

Odds: 4-1

 

Denny Hamlin (Defending Champion)

Season: 10 top-10s, L14 including 9 top-5s and two wins.

Track: 9 top-5s and three wins in 22 career races while leading a total of 1,653-laps; 3rd in April.

Odds: 5-1

 

Matt Kenseth

Season: 6 top-10s, L7 including 4 top-5s and a runner-up.

Track: 6 top-5s and two wins in 35 career races while leading a total of 924-laps; led 164-laps and finished 23rd from the pole in April after a tire was cut down.

Odds: 6-1

 

Kevin Harvick

Season: 7 top-10s, L10 including 3 top-5s, a runner-up and a win.

Track: 12 top-5s and three wins in 33 career races while leading a total of 1,061-laps; has only led 132-laps over his last 11 races; has 5 top-5s in his L6 including a runner-up; 5th in April.

Odds: 7-1

 

Kyle Larson

Season: Four top-10s, two runner-ups and a win in his last eight.

Track: Just 1 top-10 in seven career races which was a runner-up finish in this race last year; 14th in April.

Odds: 8-1

 

Brad Keselowski

Season: Just 3 top-10s, L9.

Track: 4 top-5s and a win in 16 career races while leading a total of 764-laps; won the Xfinity race last night; led a 110-laps and finished 2nd in April.

Odds: 9-1

 

Joey Logano

Season: Just 2 top-5s, L16.

Track: 6 top-5s and two wins in 17 career races; has seven straight top-10s including 4 top-5s and two wins while leading all 190 of his career laps; won in April from the rear.

Odds: 9-1

 

Kurt Busch

Season: 3 top-10s and 2 top-5s, L4.

Track: 6 top-5s and two wins in 33 career races; has 7 top-10s, L9 including a runner-up and a win while leading 458-laps; 8th in April.

Odds: 12-1

 

TOP LONG-SHOTS

Jimmie Johnson

Season: Just 1 top-5 (win at Dover) over his last 17 races.

Track: 7 top-5s and three wins in 31 career races; has led just 47-laps in his last 11 races; 11th in April.

Odds: 25-1

 

Jamie McMurray

Season: Just 1 top-5, L15.

Track: 3 top-5s in 29 career races; has 5 top-10s and 3 top-5s over his last eight; 6th in April.

Odds: 35-1

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season: No top-10s, L9.

Track: 10 top-5s and three wins in 35 career races, but just two top-5s, L16; 30th in April.

Odds: 66-1

 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Season: 0 top-5s since his win at Daytona.

Track: 1 top-5 in nine career races; 4th in April.

Odds: 66-1

 

RACE PICKS: WEEK 26

 

CJ RADUNE

RACE RECORD: 15 for 25

RACE TOTAL: +240

 

WEEK 26 RACE PICKS

M Truex Jr. (4-1)…50

M Kenseth (6-1)…20

B Keselowski (9-1)…15

J Logano (9-1)…15

For a complete record of CJs weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

GREG DEPALMA

RACE RECORD: 10 for 25

RACE TOTAL: -435

 

WEEK 26 RACE PICKS

K Larson (8-1)…50

D Hamlin (5-1)…20

M Kenseth (6-1)…15

Kurt B (12-1)…10

R Stenhouse Jr. (66-1)…5

For a complete record of Greg’s weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

Points Formula (Monster Energy Cup Series)

Each analyst receives a weekly allowance of 200 points to spend on races (100 x 36) and futures (100 x 32).

100 futures points will be invested before practice begins each week, while 100 race points will be invested on race day.

The weekly totals take into account both the 100 futures investment and the 100 in race picks.

After race 32 in Kansas, each analyst will no longer be obligated to invest the 100 in futures points if he chooses, although he must continue to invest the 100 in race points through Homestead.

 

Championship Odds (9/10)

Weekly Futures Picks Report

2-1…M Truex Jr.

3-1…Kyle B

5-1…K Larson

7-1…D Hamlin, K Harvick and J Johnson

12-1…B Keselowski

25-1…C Elliott and M Kenseth

60-1…R Blaney

80-1…J McMurray

100-1…Kurt Busch, E Jones, J Logano, R Newman and R Stenhouse Jr.

200-1…C Bowyer, A Dillon and K Kahne

300-1…D Suarez

500-1…Dale Jr.

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