PSN NASCAR Handicapping Report & Picks: Overton’s 301

It’s hard to believe but we’re still waiting for a Joe Gibbs Racing driver to make his way to Victory Lane in the Cup Series for the first time this season. After dominating both races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last season, there’s no better time to put an end to the drought than today.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

TRACK DATA

Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Sponsor: Overton’s 301

Shape: 1 mile (flat)

Similar tracks: Dover and Phoenix

Defending champion: Matt Kenseth

T.V.:  Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

 

TRACK TRENDS

– 9 of last 18 race winners started outside the top-10 with 6 of those 9 winners starting outside the top-17.

– Only 1 of the last 9 race winners started inside the top-4 (first two rows).

– The farthest back a race winner has started is 38th (Jeff Burton/1999).

 

TOP CONTENDERS

Kyle Busch

Season: 7 top-10s in his last nine including 5 top-5s and a runner-up.

Track: 9 top-5s and two wins in 24 career races while leading 691-laps; 7 top-10s in his last eight races including 5 top-5s, 3 runner-ups and a win; led 133-laps in this race last year (8th).

Odds:  4-1

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Season: The point’s series leader is coming off a win last week at Kentucky, his third of the season.

Track: 3 top-5s in 22 with no top-5s since 2008; led 264-laps in both races last year.

Odds:  4-1

 

Kevin Harvick

Season: 9 top-10s, L12 including 6 top-5s, one runner-up and a win (Sonoma).

Track: 9 top-5s and 2 wins in 32 career races while leading 706-laps; 4 top-5s and a win (last September) in his last five races while leading a combined 387-laps.

Odds:  6-1

 

Denny Hamlin

Season: 5 top-10s & 4 top-5s in his last seven races.

Track: 8 top-5s and 2 wins in 22 races while leading 495-laps.

Odds:  7-1

 

Brad Keselowski

Season: Just 2 top-15s in his last seven with four results of 31st or worse including 38th once and 39th twice.

Track: 6 top-5s and a win in 15 races with three career poles while leading 350-laps.

Odds:  8-1

 

Jimmie Johnson

Season: Just 1 top-5 (win at Dover) in his last ten races.

Track: 10 top-5s and 3 wins in 30 races; has led just seven-laps combined over his last 11 races here.

Odds:  9-1

 

Matt Kenseth

Season: Just 1 top-5 in his last ten races.

Track: 10 top-5s and 3 wins in 34 career races; 7 top-10s in his last eight races including 5 top-5s, a runner-up and 3 wins while leading a combined 321-laps; has averaged a 1.3 finish over his last three races (2nd, 1st & 1st).

Odds:  9-1

 

Kyle Larson

Season: Runner-up at both Phoenix and Dover.

Track: 2 top-5s in six races (both in 2014).

Odds:  10-1

 

Chase Elliott

Season: 5 top-10s, 3 top-5s and a runner-up in his last six races.

Track: Finished 34th in this race last year and 13th in September; has 2 top-10s in two Xfinity races.

Odds:  12-1

 

TOP LONG-SHOTS

Joey Logano

Season: Just 1 top-5 in his last nine races; finished 31st at Phoenix and 25th at Dover.

Track: 6 top-5s and 2 wins in 17 races; 4 top-5s and a win in his last five.

Odds:  20-1

 

Ryan Blaney

Season: 4 top-10s, 2 top-5s and a win in his last eight races; finished 23rd at Phoenix and 32nd at Dover.

Track: No top-10s in three career races.

Odds:  22-1

 

Clint Bowyer

Season: Finished 13th at Phoenix and 31st at Dover.

Track: 4 top-5s and 2 wins in 22 races while leading 516-laps.

Odds:  25-1

 

Jamie McMurray

Season: 7 top-10s, 2 top-5s and a runner-up in his last ten races.

Track: 4 top-5s in 28 races while leading just 32 career laps; finished 6th in this race last year.

Odds:  29-1

 

Erik Jones

Season: Runner-up finishes in his last two races.

Track: First Cup race; finished runner-up last year in his first Xfinity race.

Odds:  33-1

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season: Finished 12th or better in five of his last seven races.

Track: 8 top-5s in 33 races; 4 top-10s and 1 top-5 in his last five races.

Odds:  45-1

 

Daniel Suarez

Season: No top-10s in his last five; finished 7th at Phoenix and 6th at Dover.

Track: First Cup race; 2 top-5s in 2 career Xfinity races.

Odds:  66-1

 

Ryan Newman

Season: Won the race at Phoenix and finished 4th at Dover.

Track: 7 top-5s and 3 wins in 30 races while leading 722-laps; has only led two combined laps over his last ten races here.

Odds:  100-1

 

RACE PICKS: WEEK 19

 

CJ RADUNE

RACE RECORD: 10 for 18

RACE TOTAL: +80

 

WEEK 19 RACE PICKS

Kyle B (4-1)…40

M Truex Jr. (4-1)…40

J Johnson (9-1)…20

For a complete record of CJs weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

GREG DEPALMA

RACE RECORD: 9 for 18

RACE TOTAL: -135

 

WEEK 19 RACE PICKS

D Hamlin (7-1)…50

Kyle B (4-1)…25

K Larson (10-1)…10

E Jones (33-1)…10

D Suarez (66-1)…5

For a complete record of Greg’s weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

Points Formula (Monster Energy Cup Series)

Each analyst receives a weekly allowance of 200 points to spend on races (100 x 36) and futures (100 x 32).

100 futures points will be invested before practice begins each week, while 100 race points will be invested on race day.

The weekly totals take into account both the 100 futures investment and the 100 in race picks.

After race 32 in Kansas, each analyst will no longer be obligated to invest the 100 in futures points if he chooses, although he must continue to invest the 100 in race points through Homestead.

 

Championship Odds (7/15)

Weekly Futures Picks Report

4-1…M Truex Jr.

5-1…Kyle B and K Larson

6-1…J Johnson

7-1…K Harvick and B Keselowski

10-1…J Logano

15-1…C Elliott

18-1…D Hamlin

30-1…M Kenseth

50-1…R Blaney, C Bowyer and J McMurray

60-1…Kurt Busch

100-1…A Dillon, Dale Jr., E Jones, K Kahne, R Newman, R Stenhouse Jr and D Suarez

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