PSN NASCAR Handicapping Report & Picks: Pure Michigan 400

Kyle Larson looks for the sweep at Michigan International Speedway after also winning at the other 2-mile track at Fontana earlier this season.

By Greg DePalma, PSN Executive Producer

TRACK DATA

Track: Michigan International Speedway

Sponsor: Pure Michigan

Shape: 2.0 mile speedway

Similar tracks: California (Fontana)

Defending champion: Kyle Larson 

T.V.:  Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

 

TRACK TRENDS

– 6 of last 8 race winners started in the top-8 (front four rows) including five pole sitters.

– The farthest back a race winner has started is 32nd (M Martin/2009 & J Gordon/1998).

 

TOP CONTENDERS

Kyle Busch

Season: Just 3 top-10s in his last six races including a win at Pocono.

Track: 4 top-5s and a win in 25 career races including just 2 top-10s since his lone win here in 2011; 7th in June.

Odds: 4-1

 

Brad Keselowski

Season: 5 top-10s, L9 including 4 top-5s and a runner-up; runner-up at Fontana.

Track: 5 top-5s in 16; 16th in June.

Odds: 5-1

 

Kyle Larson (Defending Champion)

Season: Finished 26th or worse in five of his last seven races; won from the pole at Fontana.

Track: 4 top-10s in seven career races including back-to-back wins; won from the pole in June.

Odds: 5-1

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Season: 4 top-5s and two wins in his last five races.

Track: 5 top-5s in 23 career races including sixth or better in three of his last five; 6th in June.

Odds: 5-1

 

Chase Elliott

Season: Just 2 top-10s, L6.

Track: Has three runner-up finishes here in all three races including June.

Odds: 9-1

 

Kevin Harvick

Season: 12 top-10s, L16 including 8 top-5s, two runner-ups and a win.

Track: 10 top-5s and a win in 33 career races including 7 top-5s in his last nine with five runner-ups; 14th in June.

Odds: 10-1

 

Matt Kenseth

Season: Four straight top-10s including 3 top-5s and a runner-up (last week at Watkins Glen).

Track: 14 top-5s and three wins in 36 career races; 11th in June.

Odds: 10-1

 

Joey Logano

Season: Just 2 top-5s, L13; 5th at Fontana.

Track: 12 top-10s, 5 top-5s and two wins in 17 career races including nine straight top-10s with 5 top-5s, two wins a combined 356-laps led; 3rd in June.

Odds: 12-1

 

TOP LONG-SHOTS

Denny Hamlin

Season: 8 top-10s, L11 including 7 top-5s and a win.

Track: 7 top-5s and two wins in 23 career races (has not led a lap here in his last seven races); 4th in June.

Note: Hamlin may have to leave the race with the impending birth of his child.

Odds: 17-1

 

Ryan Blaney

Season: No top-5s in his last eight races.

Track: Just 1 top-10 in five career races; 25th in June.

Odds: 18-1

 

Jimmie Johnson

Season: Just 1 top-5 (win at Dover) in his last 14 races; has also finished 27th or worse in four of his last five races.

Track: 5 top-5s and a win in 31career races including leading a combined 687-laps; 10th in June.

Odds: 19-1

 

Jamie McMurray

Season: Just 1 top-5, L12; 6th at Fontana.

Track: Just 2 top-5s in 29 career races, but has 4 top-10s in his last five including 5th in June.

Odds: 35-1

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season: No top-10s, L6.

Track: 8 top-5s and two wins in 35 career races including 5 top-10s in his last six with 2 top-5s and a runner-up; 9th in June.

Odds: 45-1

 

Kurt Busch

Season: Just 1 top-5 since winning the Daytona 500.

Track: 11 top-10s and three wins in 33 career races; 12th in June.

Odds: 50-1

 

Daniel Suarez

Season: Four straight top-10s including 3rd last week; 7th at Fontana.

Track: 24th in first Cup race here in June, but won here last here in the Xfinity Series.

Odds: 55-1

 

RACE PICKS: WEEK 23

CJ RADUNE

RACE RECORD: 12 for 22

RACE TOTAL: +30

 

WEEK 23 RACE PICKS

M Truex Jr. (5-1)…25

K Larson (5-1)…25

B Keselowski (5-1)…20

C Elliott (9-1)…20

J Logano (12-1)…10

For a complete record of CJs weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

GREG DEPALMA

RACE RECORD: 10 for 22

RACE TOTAL: -135

 

WEEK 23 RACE PICKS

M Kenseth (10-1)…30

J Logano (12-1)…30

B Keselowski (5-1)…25

J McMurray (35-1)…5

Dale Jr. (45-1)…5

D Suarez (55-1)…5

For a complete record of Greg’s weekly race picks you can check out his 2017 Balance Sheet Report which is updated after every race all season long.

 

Points Formula (Monster Energy Cup Series)

Each analyst receives a weekly allowance of 200 points to spend on races (100 x 36) and futures (100 x 32).

100 futures points will be invested before practice begins each week, while 100 race points will be invested on race day.

The weekly totals take into account both the 100 futures investment and the 100 in race picks.

After race 32 in Kansas, each analyst will no longer be obligated to invest the 100 in futures points if he chooses, although he must continue to invest the 100 in race points through Homestead.

 

Championship Odds (8/11)

Weekly Futures Picks Report

3-1…Kyle B and M Truex Jr.

4-1…K Larson

7-1…K Harvick and J Johnson

10-1…D Hamlin

15-1…C Elliott and B Keselowski

25-1…M Kenseth

50-1…R Blaney, J Logano and R Newman

60-1…Kurt Busch

80-1…C Bowyer and J McMurray

100-1…A Dillon, Dale Jr., K Kahne,

E Jones and R Stenhouse Jr.

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